TIPS & TRICKS
Dungeon Treasures
In the past I've written about the calculus of the dungeon. Beating the dungeon is the key to getting past the lower levels of character development, and recovering treasure is the key to beating the dungeon. So how do we do it?
First, what treasure is in the dungeon and why? The placement of treasure, and any guardians of it, is the prerogative of the referee. In our game, however, that decision is based purely on what the rules give us and not our own wishes that the characters succeed, or that the players have fun, or that the game is memorable and dramatic, or any other consideration. We follow these rules strictly because we are more interested in playing the game that these rules present than in telling or hearing a story of our own design, and to maintain fairness because our referees are also players in this game. Following those rules, the placement of treasure in the dungeon is guided by 1) tables indicating whether or not a particular room has treasure, and 2) if so, of what that treasure consists.
I was interested in finding out what this meant in practice, and as I wrote in the brief article linked above, that works out to about 272 gold assuming average results for gems and jewelry, without exploring the exceptional cases. It is, however, the exceptional cases that make gambling the dungeon attractive, if not technically worth the risks. The exceptional cases are in gems and jewelry, and by extension, maps.
With top level rolls, the average gem is worth 275 gold, so the average gems treasure roll, 688. That does not include rolls beyond the base value which can push a gem's value as low as 1 silver or as high as 1 million gold. One gem in 2.4 billion gems is worth that maximum value. An unguarded, first level dungeon hoard could contain 4 of them. The odds are minuscule, 1 in 1.92E11, but not zero. Jewelry contains a similar "exploding" value up to 640 thousand gold.
By how much do these cases, and the lesser exceptional cases, skew the value of dungeon treasure on average. And, maybe more importantly, what are the chances of scoring a high yield treasure?
To find out, I rolled on these tables half a million times. Here's what I learned from that. First, in that many iterations I didn't find a 4 million gold hoard, or even a 1 million, but I did roll 4 hoards with a half a million gold gem, 1 with a 350k gem, and 9 with quarter million gold gems in them. All of the 128 rolls over 100k gold (unguarded first level treasures, remember) were gems rolls.
Including these exceptional cases (by simulation rather than calculation) increased the average hoard from 272 to 334 gold. Not enormous, or probably even very significant. If a highly skilled and efficient party managed to exploit 24 rooms in a session, that's about a 790 gold difference, 3,460 vs. 4,250 total haul. That doesn't change the basic calculus. It radically changes the gamble, however.
To have a 50/50 chance of finding a 10k+ gold treasure in the first level of a dungeon, a party needs to find 281 treasure hoards. There are 2 hoards when treasure is guarded by monsters and 1 when it's not. Delving to the second level drastically reduces the number of treasures which need to be found to reach the 50% chance that at least one of them is worth at least 10k to only 59 rolls. The diminishing returns of the dungeon kick in quickly, and at the 3rd level deep, 48 treasure rolls must still be found to yield the same 50% chance at least one was worth more than 10k gold.
For the interested, here's my analysis:
The conclusion is very simple. As a low level character, find as many treasure hoards as you can with the least amount of risk. Skip the well-defended double hoards, at least at first, and get down to the second level if possible.
If you don't make at least enough on your 1st level character's first delve to fully replenish your losses and upgrade your character's arms and armor throw him away and try fresh next time.
The further one advances one's character, the more worthwhile it is to hold on to it even after a failed expedition, but if you can only try again from a weaker position than the last you might have a gambling problem.